The Trump Paradox
Jekyll, Hyde, and the Reluctant Acceptance of the Inevitability of Trump 2024
Donald J. Trump will be President of the United States in 2025. In the midst of almost daily blunders from a deteriorating President Biden and his incompetent Administration, disapproval numbers climbing towards 60% with no signs of stopping, and consistent polling showing Trump with big leads over both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to deny the overwhelming likelihood of Trump’s re-ascension. The pertinent question is not will he be President, but how should one feel about that?
It’s certainly not an easy question to answer. Trump is inscrutable, an enigma, and while the energy and platform he burst forth with in 2015 was eminently promising, his Administration proved to be more Jekyll and Hyde than anything else. This identity crisis well predates the breakdown that took place in March 2020. In fact, I would argue it began less than three months into his Presidency, when he bombed Shayrat Airbase in Syria at the behest of his daughter, and the blunders didn’t stop there. His failure to get the GOP in line and repeal the Affordable Care Act, the Bump Stock ban, his disastrous red flag law rhetoric that he had to hastily walk back are just a few examples. That doesn’t even dive into his absolutely terrible handling of Covid, ceding basically all control to corrupt bureaucrats who have proceeded to irreparably damage liberty in the United States.
The sad truth is that, by the end, Donald Trump had seemingly given in to the ‘swamp’ that he railed so hard against. His judicial appointees were suggestions by the Mitch McConnell’s and Lindsay Graham’s of the world, and have (save Gorsuch) been awful. He heavily relied on people either extraordinarily incompetent or with vested interesting in seeing him fail. He failed to pardon anyone of actual consequence, again at the behest, or under threat from, the same D.C. lifers he had been elected to rebuke. Personnel is policy, and not many have proven to be worse at choosing who to trust than Donald Trump.
And yet…
There are too many positives to dismiss the man outright. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was solid legislation. He got out of the Paris Accords, NAFTA, and the Iran Nuclear Deal. He presided over an incredible transformation of United States foreign policy. America was no longer the World’s Police Force, claiming to be the sole arbiter of morality, and treated other Nations as sovereign entities with goals of their own. That mutual respect got deals done. The Abraham Accords, the progress with North Korea (minuscule as it was, it was something), the Afghanistan withdrawal plan and, most importantly, no new conflicts for the first time in a long time. The U.S. was a serious nation again on the world stage and a serious nation at home. The border became the most secure it had been in decades, something that took just weeks without him to completely collapse into anarchy. America no longer had to rely on foreign oil; we were energy independent.
He oversaw an economy with staggering strength. Economic growth that we were told during the Obama Administration was no longer feasible, Trump got it done. Even during the height of the quote-un-quote pandemic, when large portions of the country were completely frozen, the economy was beginning to rebound. Even if they didn’t like him personally, they had faith in him to run the country. Trump’s job performance polled up to eight points higher than the man himself. When he left, that confidence evaporated, leaving the U.S. mired in an economic quagmire.
His most important accomplishment, though, is one far less quantifiable. His rhetoric and bombast destroyed the status-quo and the façade that the District of Columbia had wrapped itself in for far too long; they were forced to take the mask off. His ascendance and election proved that the people in the United States still hold some sway over the direction their country takes.
So, the portrait of a man. Or two men. Which Trump is the real one? His actions towards the end of his Presidency could certainly swing someone to believing he has become a fraud, a shell of the outsider that blew up the political landscape in 2015. Yet, to this day, the Establishment™ of both parties continue to dig and dig, looking for anything they can unearth to make sure he can never hold office again. What does that say? I don’t know and I don’t think anyone can say for certain which Trump is the real Trump without just projecting what they want him to be onto him. In just four years, America saw high highs and low lows. There were certainly many mistakes, but no man is infallible. Even the Washington Administration had missteps. However, of all the fallible men in the land, Trump might be the most so.
And yet…
Donald J. Trump will be President of the United States in 2025. This isn’t to say that the call for Trump to take the Grover Cleveland path is unanimous. Many within the movement and the party oppose his nomination. Many will protest the claim that he will retake the Presidency. I am one of the former. I would rather someone new take the mantle. But, at the same time, the question must be asked: if not Trump, then who?
Many would be quick to thrust the mantle upon Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and somewhat understandably so. His profile has steadily increased as Trump’s waned during Covid and especially after Biden’s ascension. But he doesn’t come without serious questions. While no one has the national brand of Trump, DeSantis’ is a far cry, and that could pose a problem in a reality where a significant chunk of voters base their vote largely on whether or not they recognize the name on the ballot. It isn’t clear that he can drive voters in droves like Trump did or that he can keep the gains that Trump made amongst certain demographic groups in 2020. It’s also unclear exactly how he would handle foreign policy, in contrast to Trump. This isn’t to say that DeSantis doesn’t have a bright future, including, potentially, being President, but there are definite drawbacks.
Putting DeSantis aside, who else it there? Glenn Youngkin, while a promising figure, isn’t a serious answer. Someone like a Chris Sununu or Larry Hogan would have serious issues driving turnout where needed, and while there are many great fighters that have emerged in both chambers of Congress (e.g., Paul Gosar, Mary Miller, Thomas Massie, Josh Hawley, even Ted Cruz) it’s not clear that any of them, save maybe Rand Paul (though, he would also likely have issues driving turnout among necessary groups), are executive material. Which is no slight to anyone I named, or the many others I didn’t list, some people are just better as lawmakers. The reality is the GOP’s bench, while certainly more substantial than the Democrat’s, isn’t very deep either.
But to argue the electoral pitfalls of the potential Trump successors without doing the same for Trump would be disingenuous. While Trump ran an incredibly effective campaign in 2016, it is equally true that he ran an atrocious one in 2020. He bloviated about nothing, put together an awful debate performance, and let Biden play as the moderate while remaining completely silent on all his popular accomplishments. There was hardly a mention of the well-controlled border, the energy independence, or the lack of foreign wars. Who’s to say that Trump won’t get on the campaign trail in 2024 and start talking about how he brought back Big-10 Football again, or continuing to opine on 2020 which, regardless of whether or not there was fraud, is not something voters care about. Given the evidence, can anyone say for certain that Trump wouldn’t do his best to squander the massive lead he’s built up over the first year of the Biden Administration? I don’t think there is.
And yet…
Donald J. Trump will be President of the United States in 2025 and I guess we’ll just have to see whether or not that’s for the better.
