2022 Midterm Forecasts
The KONE Aggregation Model’s 2022 Projections
As the Midterms drift closer, I will be updating this story with current forecasts from my own aggregation model. After the Primaries wrap up, I will have ratings for individual races as well as ratings on the environment at large.
Beginning with Presidential Job Approval…
There’s really no upside for President Biden here. He has no discernible base, which is likely the cause of his atrocious Intensity Index. He’s proven unable to unify a fracturing party (not that anyone outside of maybe 2008 Obama could). The Republicans who voted for him in 2020 and stuck by him because of his Covid rhetoric have long fled and there’s no legislation or policy waiting in the wings to save him. The Biden Agenda has proven unpopular and intervention in Eastern Europe is even more so.
There is no knight in shining armor coming to save the Biden Administration, and that will effect the Party come November.
The Generic Ballot reflects the ugly scene painted by Biden’s ever shrinking approval. Republicans hold a lead approaching seven points, which translates to around 241 seats; approaching 2010 territory. When you take into account that Democrats would have to win the Generic Ballot by around two points to retain narrow control in the House, the picture gets even bleaker. At this point, GOP control of the lower chamber is a virtual guarantee. Dems should be thankful that the Senate map is fairly friendly, if they were staring down the 2024 map this year, there would be apocalyptic danger.
All of this is to say what is fairly obvious to anyone paying attention. 2022 is shaping up to be an disaster for the Democrats, and it doesn’t seem as though there is much they can do to reverse course.